All-cause versus cause-specific excess deaths for estimating influenza-associated mortality in Denmark, Spain, and the United States.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza-associated excess mortality estimates can be timely and provide useful information on the severity of an epidemic. This methodology can be leveraged during an emergency response or pandemic. METHOD: For Denmark, Spain, and the United States, we estimated age-stratified excess mortality for (i) all-cause, (ii) respiratory and circulatory, (iii) circulatory, (iv) respiratory, and (v) pneumonia, and influenza causes of death for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons. We quantified differences between the countries and seasonal excess mortality estimates and the death categories. We used a time-series linear regression model accounting for time and seasonal trends using mortality data from 2010 through 2017. RESULTS: The respective periods of weekly excess mortality for all-cause and cause-specific deaths were similar in their chronological patterns. Seasonal all-cause excess mortality rates for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons were 4.7 (3.3-6.1) and 14.3 (13.0-15.6) per 100,000 population, for the United States; 20.3 (15.8-25.0) and 24.0 (19.3-28.7) per 100,000 population for Denmark; and 22.9 (18.9-26.9) and 52.9 (49.1-56.8) per 100,000 population for Spain. Seasonal respiratory and circulatory excess mortality estimates were two to three times lower than the all-cause estimates. DISCUSSION: We observed fewer influenza-associated deaths when we examined cause-specific death categories compared with all-cause deaths and observed the same trends in peaks in deaths with all death causes. Because all-cause deaths are more available, these models can be used to monitor virus activity in near real time. This approach may contribute to the development of timely mortality monitoring systems during public health emergencies.

The orthopaedic and traumatology scenario during Covid-19 outbreak in Italy: chronicles of a silent war.

BACKGROUND: From February 21, the day of hospitalisation in ICU of the first diagnosed case of Covid-19, the social situation and the hospitals' organisation throughout Italy dramatically changed. METHODS: The CIO (Club Italiano dell'Osteosintesi) is an Italian society devoted to the study of traumatology that counts members spread in public and private hospitals throughout the country. Fifteen members of the CIO, Chairmen of 15 Orthopaedic and Trauma Units of level 1 or 2 trauma centres in Italy, have been involved in the study. They were asked to record data about surgical, outpatients clinics and ER activity from the 23rd of February to the 4th of April 2020. The data collected were compared with the data of the same timeframe of the previous year (2019). RESULTS: Comparing with last year, overall outpatient activity reduced up to 75%, overall Emergency Room (ER) trauma consultations up to 71%, elective surgical activity reduced up to 100% within two weeks and trauma surgery excluding femoral neck fractures up to 50%. The surgical treatment of femoral neck fractures showed a stable reduction from 15 to 20% without a significant variation during the timeframe. CONCLUSIONS: Covid-19 outbreak showed a tremendous impact on all orthopaedic trauma activities throughout the country except for the surgical treatment of femoral neck fractures, which, although reduced, did not change in percentage within the analysed timeframe.